The preliminary business model included survey costs, planning, earthwork, native vegetation establishment, invasive plant control, monitoring, long-term stewardship funding, and the operator's share of future revenue. The projected range of outcomes was broad enough to make Warren frown. Miriam did not apologize for that breadth; she said a narrow estimate would be dishonest while the technical plan was still unapproved. Casey asked for the model in editable form so she could test what happened if credit releases were delayed or sale prices fell.
Over the next week, she built scenarios on the kitchen computer. The most optimistic showed a meaningful return after the project reached milestones; the conservative one showed years of work before substantial distributions reached the farm. The worst case showed the need to halt the project before permanent commitments if agency approval or financing could not be secured. She printed all three because Warren had been trained by years of agriculture to distrust a plan that showed only the harvest and never the crop failure.
"Which one do you believe?" he asked, examining the sheets.
"I believe we should be able to survive the middle one," she answered. "And we shouldn't sign anything we can't survive if the worst one happens."
Warren looked at her for a long moment. "That's exactly what Martha used to say about buying equipment."
Casey folded her arms. "Then maybe we should both listen to her this time."
The winter was wetter than expected. Water returned to parts of the lower basin even after Delta Ridge reduced flow from the disputed outlet during an interim drainage adjustment. Renata documented the difference and explained that the basin's historic soils and topography were holding water under ordinary seasonal conditions, supporting Odell's view that the area had restoration potential independent of the developer's harmful concentrated runoff. At the same time, the remaining artificial flow still had to be corrected, and the developer continued disputing how much damage was attributable to its work.
That dual reality became the center of the case. The basin was naturally prone to wetness, but the development's modified drainage had worsened flooding and injured a planted crop. The existence of potential wetland function did not absolve the developer, and the fact of crop loss did not make the basin ecologically worthless. Warren found that he could hold both facts in his mind now without feeling they canceled each other.
In January, Harlan received a call from a lawyer representing Delta Ridge's insurer. The company had begun collecting construction communications in response to the claims and the bank's internal review, and the insurer wanted to explore mediation rather than pay indefinitely for experts on both sides. Harlan agreed to discuss the process only if Warren's records were preserved, relevant nonprivileged documents were exchanged, and the parties could obtain independent advice. He had no intention of allowing a settlement conference to become another version of Gerald's roadside offer.